Forecasting Analysis of the Number of Foreign Tourist Arrivals with the Chan Chan Fuzzy Time Series Model method
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Abstract
The tourism sector greatly influences the community's economic growth, one of the factors is the visit or number of foreign tourists who now have an important role in increasing the prosperity of life which has advantages in its cultural resources and natural resources. In realizing sustainable development in the tourism sector, activities are carried out to predict the value of a variable in the future, namely forecasting. This study aims to predict the arrival of foreign tourists to West Sumatra using the Fuzzy Time Series method. The historical data used is data on foreign tourist visits to West Sumatra in 2019. The implementation of the Fuzzy Time Series on historical data produces a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 11.45% with the lowest error rate of 1,184%. These results indicate that the use of the Fuzzy Time Series in data forecasting of foreign tourist visits to West Sumatra has very good results.
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